Trumping a Fluke

            The 2016 US Presidential Election season will be forever remembered as the cycle that almost elected eccentric moron Donald Trump.  People will look back and laugh at how absurd that a reality TV star clown was leading in the polls for a major political party, propelling himself forward using lies, ignorance and hate mongering.  Today, however, Mr. Trump’s rise looks almost unstoppable.  He’s kept a lead in the polls, fighting off surges by Carly Fiorina, failed CEO of a nearly failed company, and Ben Carson, the walking oxymoron of idiot brain surgeon.  However, if we examine the current primary in context, Mr. Trump’s lead shows what it truly is, a sad regrettable fluke of a unique primary season.

            According to the polling aggregate Real Clear Politics, Mr. Trump has enjoyed a lead since July.  The numbers that Mr. Trump has lead with?  Roughly 20% to 30%.  To be clear, that is not 20-30% lead over his next opponent, that is 20-30% total.  Compare this to Secretary Clinton’s numbers as high as 60% and low as 40%.  The second highest Democratic challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders, has percentages starting at 10% and currently at 30%.

            To have a candidate leading with 30% is abysmal.  It only qualifies him as frontrunner by technicality.  The reason for this is Mr. Trump's cornering of the stupid vote.  Besides Mr. Trump, Dr. Carson and Ms. Fiorina, the rest of the candidates are established politicians, all ten others.  Though they are still privy to saying incredibly stupid things, they cannot afford the same bellicose hate speech and easily falsified claims so prone to Mr. Trump.  Those prejudicial voters can now be openly welcomed into Mr. Trump’s fold, whereas before they were dog whistled by GOP candidates looking for the plausible deniability of racism (a reference to “Dog Whistle Politics” by Ian Haney Lopez, check it out).  

            This is not to last forever.  This is merely a fluke.  Had the GOP primaries not been so oversaturated Mr. Trump’s campaign would have burned bright and fast.  Mr. Trump has hitherto had any significant upswing in polls.  As more establishment candidates drop out their supporters will move to other establishment candidates and quickly overtake Mr. Trump.  I not only believe this to be the case, but also wish it to be so.  Mr. Trump is a dangerous man, a nativistic hatemonger.  How appropriate it is that fascism would emerge in the US not with goosestepping brown shirts, but a billionaire reality TV star.  But, please, GOP establishment, I don’t ask or expect much from you, but save us from the monster your clown car trainwreck of a party has incubated and unleashed upon us.